First 47 Super Bowls Summarized -- "No Team Has Ever..."
Adam Rifkin stashed this in Football
Super Bowl 47 will be remembered for the 109-yard touchdown run, the 35-minute power outage, and the 49ers almost coming back from 28-6 but coming up short in the final "first and goal" drive and losing 34-31 because they ran out of time.
Mathematically, it's all about the turnovers, not the firsts.... http://www.stlsports.com/articles/071010turnovers.html
But it makes sense: if two teams are good enough to get into the Super Bowl, the one that makes fewer mistakes is most likely to win it.