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Everyone seems to be picking the Grizzlies over the Thunder.

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Tony Manfred says Grizz in 6:

Memphis is scary hot. After building a reputation as one of the best defensive teams in the NBA during the regular season, they've been the best offensive team in the playoffs, based on offensive efficiency.

Zach Randolph is back in form after a late-season slump, Marc Gasol is doing Marc Gasol things from the high post, and Mike Conley has boosted his numbers in both points and assists in the playoffs.

So this series looks like a blowout, except for one thing — OKC's struggles against Houston tell us almost nothing about how they'll play against Memphis.

The Thunder were thrown out of whack by a double curveball last series. First the Rockets went super-small and tried to exploit Serge Ibaka as a perimeter defender, and then Russell Westbrook went down. They had to adjust to Houston's adjustments while also adjusting to the loss of Westbrook.

That won't be the case against Memphis. The Grizzlies are a more comfortable match-up for OKC. The Thunder can play their two bigs at once, and Memphis doesn't have a punishing guard like James Harden to take advantage of the Thunder's slow-footed guards.

Meanwhile, the Thunder took game 1 thanks to Kevin Durant's late jumper:

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