Entrepreneurs go with their guts
Gregory Alan Bolcer stashed this in Founders
Rapid cognition is also the theme of Malcolm Gladwell's Blink: http://www.gladwell.com/blink/
The bottom line is that to hone one's instincts, one must have many experiences. Or to put it another way:
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment.
That's why it's better to make any decision than no decision.