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Moneyball doesn't work.


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The numbers are good, but the story of Moneyball is still bunk, according to David Haglund, the editor of Browbeat (Slate Magazine's culture blog):

“I think Bill James and the sabermetric analysts who followed in his wake had many great things to say and the Oakland A’s were very wise to capitalize on their findings,” Haglund said. “But the story that [Moneyball author] Michael Lewis tells is that these findings turned Oakland into a great contender even though they were spending very little. Really, the truth is that Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, these guys turned Oakland into a contender and they weren’t really the product of Bill James inspired sabermetric analysis. They were generally very high draft picks that other teams also very highly valued.”

According to Alan Hirch, co-author of The Beauty of Short Hops: How Chance and Circumstance Confound the Moneyball Approach to Baseball:

“Small market teams have succeeded throughout baseball history,” Hirsch said. “Moneyball makes it sound like Billy Beane parted the Red Sea. What he did was he led a small market team to a successful run. He’s far from the only general manager who did that.

So it's still unclear that moneyball works.

Which means, likely, it doesn't.

On the subject of GPS and oxygen on the battlefield or garlic at a group dinner?..If everyone has it, nobody has it.

Moneyball is a classic multi-person dilemma/game/strategy. If I haz moneyball and u haz moneyball then nobody haz moneyball.

But the bottom line is that more data and more analytics always results in better decisions (presentation in certain real time situations of that data not withstanding).

BTW, works for Fantasy Baseball still....1st place with least amount spent based on statistical evaluation on position by position.

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Works on Jeopardy.

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