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Activision risks $500 million on 'Destiny'



"If you're making a $500 million bet you can't take that chance with someone else's IP," Activision CEO told the Milken conference. "The stakes for us are getting bigger."

"Destiny" is a cross between a traditional shooting game format and a role-playing game in which gamers play characters in a real-time online world. The title allows gamers to play "Guardians" who protect the last city standing on a post-apocalyptic Earth.

Analysts said $500 million would likely be a record spent on a single game - especially one without an established track record. To break even, Activision would have to sell about 15 million to 16 million units of a $60 game, analysts said.

"It's a head scratcher, said Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia. "For brand new IP, it's tough but it could post a big surprise."

Bhatia expects the game will sell 8 million units. "Grand Theft Auto V," which hit stores last September, was a runaway success with over 32.5 million units as of February this year. But it was the fifth installment of a critically acclaimed series that had become an indelible component of popular youth culture.

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Upon reflection, that is a VERY big bet.

As of September 2015, they are at 20M units, I am assuming from the big sell last Christmas they should be at 23-26M now. This is a 10 year plan for Activision, and Destiny 2 will be coming this coming year. (2017)

They know what works and what needs to be tweaked. I am seeing more mini games like the Sparrow Racing League event (SRL)

So it was a good bet?

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