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Elon Musk: The Case For Mars - Exploring Space

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Why getting to Mars in 10 years is not feasible:

So you are committed to the atmosphere, but to an atmosphere that isn't capable of giving you a soft landing. It's no surprise that we have had so many hard landings on Mars.

It's not for nothing that they called the Curiosity landing "seven minutes of terror".

Seven Minutes of Terror: The Challenges of Getting to Mars

If they are lucky, first few spacecraft might land there safely. But that doesn't mean it is safe. Might just be luck. For instance many space shuttles flew safely before each of the two disasters. 

Read more:

Elon Musk: "I'll put a man on Mars in 10 years."

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