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Can Andrew Luck continue to win so many close games?


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Nope, he will regress, so he needs to establish more of a lead in his games if he wants to consistently win in the future:

So, Luck won’t be able to keep up his performance in close games, which means the Colts will fail to live up to their 11-5 record in 2014, right? It’s not quite that clear. For one, it’s easy to envision a scenario in which Luck isn’t anything special in close games and it’s of no consequence going forward, because the Colts win by eight or more points on a more frequent basis. Luck is just 8-8 in two-plus-score games during his professional career, but the safest way for a quarterback to consistently win is to blow out the competition. Given the strides Luck made between his freshman and sophomore pro seasons, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Indy take a step forward in terms of raw level of performance in 2014.

If the Colts are dependent on close games for half of their wins again in 2014, though, they’ll be engaged in a very dangerous exercise. Luck proved the numbers wrong in 2013, but history tells us that time is on the numbers’ side. Whether his initial run was due to randomness or a stroke of genius, Luck simply can’t expect to win more than 85 percent of his close contests as the years go on. His team may feel that pinch as early as this season.

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