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The Growing Blue-State Diaspora - NYTimes.com


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Red is still dominating national politics. For now.

Even with the growing blue diaspora, the Democrats face an uphill battle in holding on to the Senate this year. The Upshot’s forecasting model, based on a combination of polls, fund-raising numbers, demographics and other data, gives the Republicans a slightly better than 60 percent chance of winning Senate control in November. And political analysts give Democrats almost no chance of winning the House of Representatives. But perhaps the smartest way to look at these trends is through a long-term prism. Blue-to-red migration has been happening for decades, and there are reasons to think it will continue.

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