March 2015: Tinder with 46 million monthly active users is worth $1.6 billion as a standalone business.
Adam Rifkin stashed this in Active Users
Wall Street analyst JMP Securities says that Tinder would be worth around $1.6 billion as a standalone business, a giant 20% of IAC's market cap:
JMP also looks at the future of Tinder's move towards adding revenues. Tinder introduced a "Tinder Plus" subscription service in February, which lets dedicated users pay a monthly charge for bonus features. Tinder Plus increases in price for users over the age of 30, rising to $19.99 a month in the US.
But despite the high price, JMP is optimistic about the number of users who will start paying for Tinder. It says that monetisation from Tinder could become 5% of IAC's revenue in 2016, bringing in $121 million from subscriptions. JMP also predicts that 2.2% of Tinder users will pay for Tinder Plus by 2016, with its estimate ranging from 1.4% to 3%. That's a prediction of 1.5 million paid users by 2016 — a huge base of subscribers.
Tinder isn't just introducing subscription services, though. It has also started running advertising on the app, featuring its first official ad from musician Jason Derulo. Users who swiped right on Derulo's profile (meaning that they liked him) were treated to a message from the star with links to his new music video and his new song on iTunes.
JMP Securities says that Tinder could bring in $70 million in ad revenue by 2016 through the use of ads like the Jason Derulo campaign. Ads are only seen by normal Tinder members, not subscribers to Tinder Plus. The key is to get users used to swiping through multiple profiles, as then they will stumble upon ads. JMP says that Tinder was seeing 1.7 billion swipes a day as of February 2015. (It is likely that number has since dropped now that Tinder has limited the number of right-swipes users have every day unless they pay for Tinder Plus.)
Tinder also appears to have a growing and active userbase. JMP says it could reach 46 million monthly active users by the end of 2015, potentially reaching 58 million by 2016.