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Predictions Timeline of Ray Kurzweil, the futurist with an 85% accuracy rate


Stashed in: Turing, Singularity!, future, The Singularity, Ray Kurzweil!, Ray Kurzweil, Accelerating Returns, The Future

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<< [–] Lavio00 28 points 

The professor in econometrics at my uni (who has a PhD from UCLA) once said "you can take a statistical dataset, interpret it in very creative and clever ways, and come to two mutually exclusive conclusions".

Statistics and percentages are not objectively true, they are how they are interpreted. Just because this thread tells you that Ray has a "85% accuracy rate" does not make it so. There are at least as many people who say Kurzweil has a 5-10% accuracy rate as there are those who claim he has a 85% accuracy rate. >>

Also, a lot of these predictions are blurry enough so there will always be a way to make them look true.

That's a well-known technique mastered by people pretending to see the future.

I'm not saying his work isn't interesting though, dreams are essential. I'm just bringing some rationality back to the so-called future "science" that Futorology is supposed to be. (it reminds me astrology, for some reason....)

emma watson hermoine thinking gif imgur

Totally agree with you Oce but I'm still fascinated by Kurzweil's predictions. 

Do you think the predictions won't happen or that the time suggested is off?

I need more precise description of the predictions to give an opinion.

For example:

image-55d61eca07e17-3Vdu.png

How do you define the power of a human brain? Human brains are already surpassed by CPUs for basic mathematical operations, but for more complex tasks like pattern recognition, CPUs are way behind.So there seem to be different kinds of brain capacities, how do you include all of them in a "brainpower" value?

or

image-55d61ecb3f009-wEVn.png

What's the definition of a deep relation with an AI?

Having feelings for it?

Having feelings for objects is as old as humanity: stuffed toys, religious idols, more recently, cars etc...

So the point probably is to have a reciprocal relation, an AI loving you back?

How do you determine that an AI loves you back?

How do you define love? ^^

That's what I meant by blurry!

All valid questions for which there are no definitive answers. 

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