On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed | RedState
Jason Belich stashed this in politics
The great question of the election is whether the demographic shifts from 2008 are permanent. If they are, Obama wins 300+ EVs, if not, Romney wins 270-330 EVs. My opinion is that the boost in Black turnout is fairly permanent, as is the shift among white college-educated fully-employed non-SBOs under 45yo. I just don't think it will be enough.
I'm really looking forward to seeing how it all turns out.
At this point I just don't know what to expect.