Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s price dropped to $81,222 on Monday to record its lowest first-quarter return since 2019, but data suggests that whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC were continuously accumulating the crypto asset despite the negative market sentiment.
- On-chain analyst Mignolet compared it to the trend observed during the 2020 bull cycle. He dismissed any signs of whales exiting the market and said that the pattern was observed thrice during the current bull run.
- While the broader crypto market started the week on a positive note, several key U.S. policy and economic announcements, such as Trump’s tariffs on 25 countries and the release of the unemployment figures by the Federal Reserve, could impact prices in the coming days.
- Several Bitcoin metrics continued to show strength, indicating that long-term holders remain unfazed by the price correction. Bitcoin’s mining hashrate reached an all-time high on March 28, while the supply of BTC on cryptocurrency exchanges dropped to a 6-year low, and institutional interest in the flagship crypto continues to grow.
On Monday, March 31, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $81,222 to register its worst first-quarter return since 2019 before recovering to $83,000 later in the day. The flagship cryptocurrency is now down 22% from its all-time high of $109,000, recorded on January 20, 2025.
However, on the positive side, a group of whales has been following an accumulation trend that mirrors a 2020-era bull run signal.
Market-Leading Whales Continue To Accumulate Bitcoin, Following The Trend Observed During 2020 Bull Cycle
In a recent post, blockchain analyst ‘Mignolet’ highlighted that leading whale addresses holding between 1,000 BTC ($83.17 million) and 10,000 BTC ($831.74 million) exhibited a high correlation with Bitcoin’s price. He noted that these entities are resilient to market volatility and are showing an accumulation behavior akin to patterns observed during the bull cycle five years ago.
This pattern emerged thrice during the current bull run but was riddled with bearish market sentiment and preceded substantial price surges. It is also marked by whales rapidly accumulating the apex cryptocurrency even as retail investors raised doubts about a positive direction, suggesting that large-scale BTC holders are positioning themselves ahead of the recovery.
While Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant price decline, Mignolet said there are no signs yet that the market-leading whales are exiting the market. Despite the widespread whale accumulation, the BTC price remained sideways.
The New York trading session commenced on March 31, and Bitcoin rallied close to the CME futures gap that had formed over the weekend. This gap highlights the difference between the closing price of BTC futures on Friday and the opening price on Sunday evening.
Key U.S. Economic Events Could Impact Bitcoin’s Price Recovery Above $84,000
Although the Bitcoin and broader crypto market started off the new week on a bullish note, a handful of U.S. economic events and policy actions by the Trump administration could have an impact on prices.
On April 1, the JOLTS Job Openings report will be published, which is a metric reflecting the labor market demand, and a decline in this might signal economic weakness. The following day, President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs for up to 25 countries will go into effect. On April 4, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and the unemployment rates will be announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
BTC must flip the $84,000 level into its support to continue the bullish run. Reclaiming the said level could push its price above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) – a technical indicator that helps traders identify the direction of market trends and generate buy or sell signals accordingly, triggering a short-term rally to the supply zone between $86,700 and $88,700.
On the contrary, if the price consolidates under $84,000 for a long period, then it would strengthen the resistance characteristics, leading to further corrections to downside liquidity areas in the $78,200 to $76,560 zone.
Founder Of Crypto Hedge Fund Lekker Capital Predicts $60,000 BTC By The End of 2025
Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, projected a pessimistic view on the Bitcoin market, stating that the price correction may just be getting started and the crypto market as a whole could be facing a severe downtrend reminiscent of 2022. Speaking to CoinDesk, the hedge fund manager said that he believes BTC could return to a five handle – a valuation between $50,000 and $60,000 – by the end of the year.
Thompson added that it won’t happen quickly, making it “very painful” and “shocking” to investors. He called the White House’s recent crypto announcements related to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or the Sovereign Wealth Fund as “nothingburgers” and “sell the news” events. He also argued that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) constantly buying Bitcoin for its corporate reserve isn’t necessarily bullish for the cryptocurrency since it is the only significant bid the market can look forward to every week.
On Monday, Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor announced that the business intelligence firm has acquired an additional 22,048 BTC for $1.92 billion. The coins were purchased at an average price of approximately $86,969 per Bitcoin to bring its total holding to over 528,000 BTC, worth $43.86 billion at current prices.
Bitcoin Mining Hashrate Reaches ATH, And BTC Reserves On Exchanges Hit 6-Year Low
Despite the volatility, several Bitcoin metrics continued to show strength, indicating that long-term investors remain unfazed by the temporary correction as global central banks are pivoting to expansionist measures to prevent an economic crisis.
Bitcoin’s mining hashrate, a metric measuring the computing power required to mine a block on the Bitcoin network and issue BTC, reached an all-time high. On March 28, the 7-day hashrate hit a peak of 856.2 million terahashes per second (TPS), up from 798.8 million in February. Due to this reason, there are no signs of miners panicking and selling their Bitcoin to stay afloat.
In the past, whenever Bitcoin’s price experienced a downturn due to periods of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) from retail investors, miners were forced to sell their assets due to unprofitability. According to Glassnode data, the 7-day average of net transfers from miners to exchanges on March 30 stood at 125 BTC, which is much lower than the 450 BTC mined each day.
Leading Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings filed a prospectus on March 28 to sell up to $2 billion in stocks to expand its Bitcoin reserves and for “general corporate purposes”. The move follows the lead of American video game retail giant GameStop (GME), which filed a $1.3 billion convertible debt offering to acquire BTC as part of its updated reserve investment strategy.
The near-zero net outflows from the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between March 27 and March 28 signaled growing confidence for BTC among institutional investors.
Glasssnode data also suggested that Bitcoin reserves on cryptocurrency exchanges dropped to their lowest levels in over 6 years on March 30, reaching 2.64 million BTC. The significantly reduced number of coins available for immediate trading typically indicates that investors are more inclined to hold their assets, which is significant to boosting its price.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $83,040 – up 1.11% over the last 24 hours.