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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/sept-9-call-it-as-you-see-it/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Post-convention polls can be volatile, but suggestions to "wait for more data" misses the point of political forecasting The idea is to make predictions "when the information is murkier — either by (correctly) discerning a trend a few days before other methods do, or (just as importantly) by avoiding attaching too much significance to one based on flimsy evidence."

7:28 AM Sep 10 2012

It does make me wonder what anyone who hasn't made up their minds yet is waiting for.

The debates?

8:51 AM Sep 10 2012

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Geege4

I think they've mind up their minds, but they might be less (or more!) inclined to vote if their candidate appears to be a lost cause. Projections similarly could de-motivate (or motivate!) contributors.

9:48 AM Sep 10 2012

Wow, in that sense polls become self-fulfilling prophecies.

And therefore polls offer incentives to game or to lie.

2:27 PM Sep 10 2012

Props Given By:

Geege4

Big whopper data.

3:24 PM Sep 10 2012

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