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A VC: How To Be In Business Forever: Week Two

Stashed in: Google!, Change, Microsoft, @fredwilson, Rising meets Risen

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"But what Microsoft didn't see in 1995 was Google because it didn't exist. And they didn't see the emergence of cloud based productivity apps because they didn't exist. In hindsight, it is pretty easy to see how fundamentally transformed Microsoft's business has been by the Internet and it is also pretty easy to see that they have not been able to adapt sufficiently to maintain any semblance of the dominance they had in the mid 90s. This stock chart tells you everything you need to know about what the Internet did to Microsoft. They may be surviving but they are certainly not thriving."

Is change possible?

What about impact of anti-trust lawsuits and Bill Gates' departure?

Stop being so realistic! Everyone knows google killed microsoft, and Fox killed Myspace and freindster died from load speed!


Change is possible.

When Steve Jobs got bought back into Apple, he had no idea in a few years they'd create the iPod.

First he stopped the bleeding and made those iMacs with fruit names.

That bought him the time to develop the iPod.

Similarly, when Google started they had no idea they'd develop Android.

They acquired Android and developed it so that when the market was ready, so were they.

One more example: when Amazon started they had no idea they'd develop Kindle.

Companies can evolve as markets evolve.

I think MSFT will be fine; they change and innovate nicely, they're just enjoying the winners' dilemma. When you become too good for too long , average people start to hate you. See: Yankees, Patriots, Tiger Woods, USC.

Is MSFT more or less evil than the all-knowing all-seeing GOOG?

Change is definitely possible, perhaps until you are a burning platform.

Now that Google is worth more than Microsoft, it's easier to see a future where Microsoft is a boring old company like IBM or Oracle.

Or a future where Microsoft is a has-been like HP and Xerox.

Whether it's failed efforts like Zune, Kin, and Microsoft's attempts to make money on the Internet, or whether it's big franchises whose best days are in the past like Windows, Office, and Xbox, Microsoft seems increasingly irrelevant as they fade into a long, slow sunset.

The place where thy should be dominating -- "The Cloud" -- they're getting their butts kicked by Amazon.

I sincerely believe that Microsoft has forgotten how to win.

I think Google was a huge distraction for them, focusing on search and ads instead of hardware and touchscreen optimized OS. Was Windows and Office ever not boring? Also GOOG makes 96% of revenue from search ads; their long-term future is just as tenuous -- hence: Android, I'd love to see Apple use another search partner instead.

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