Mandiant APT1 Report Has Critical Analytic Flaws | Digital Dao
Jared Sperli stashed this in cyber
If Mandiant or another organization were to use ACH on this evidence, here's how Heuer recommends it be done. It's an 8-step process:
1. Identify the possible hypotheses to be considered. Use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities. 2. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis. 3. Prepare a matrix with hypotheses across the top and evidence down the side. Analyze the "diagnosticity" of the evidence and arguments--that is, identify which items are most helpful in judging the relative likelihood of the hypotheses. 4. Refine the matrix. Reconsider the hypotheses and delete evidence and arguments that have no diagnostic value. 5. Draw tentative conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis. Proceed by trying to disprove the hypotheses rather than prove them. 6. Analyze how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence. Consider the consequences for your analysis if that evidence were wrong, misleading, or subject to a different interpretation. 7. Report conclusions. Discuss the relative likelihood of all the hypotheses, not just the most likely one. 8. Identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected.
Cyber Warfare is poised to get a whole lot nastier soon, isn't it?
I expect this will be a growth industry for Palantir and maybe Google.
BusinessInsider has a step-by-step guide of how the Chinese Hackers steal secrets: