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How Nate Silver Did With His Oscar Picks | Media - Advertising Age

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Best Picture: "Argo" -- correct!

Best Director: Steven Spielberg -- incorrect! (Ang Lee actually won. It's worth noting that Silver gave Spielberg only the slightest statistical edge over Lee.)

Best Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis -- right!

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Jennifer Lawrence -- right!

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones -- wrong! (Christoph Waltz actually won. Silver wrote that Waltz "might be my choice if I were going based on which performance I liked the most, instead of trying to guess at what the Academy will do.")

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway -- right!

So... no better than any of the rest of us. :)