Great, now engineers think that they are economists too
Gregory Alan Bolcer stashed this in Dangerous Decisions
I will do no such thing either....
Haha! I love this:
"I will re-iterate exactly what I thought several thousand-percentage points ago: Bitcoin is ridiculous, and there is no reason why someone should buy them."
I'm conflicted... Bryan Goldberg's writings usually make me want to stomp on his face, but he gets Bitcoin right (tho for a half-wrong reason): deflation. It is also where I part ways with the Gold Standard fetish crowd. The only fair measure of a currency is the aggregate value of balance sheet liabilities: the liable value of your aggregate debt needs to at least stay flat in comparison to aggregate assets. In other words, after an asset bubble (like the housing bubble), the central bank needs to be able to inflate the currency, reducing the value of each dollar, until the nominal value of your overpriced mini mansion (denominated in those dollars) returns to at least the point where you're no longer in the hole. You'll suffer for it with higher prices for everything else, but at least you keep your house.Of course, the better policy choice is to not become addicted to cheap money in the first place..
Someone is going to get a Nobel Prize in Economics for developing this into a full fledged theory.
Bitcoin is the purest commodity market ever. A Bitcoin has NO value except what the market says it is.
Best argument I've seen about why to stay away from Bitcoins:
Bitcoin guarantees that deflation must occur. In the year 2140, the money supply will freeze at 21 million Bitcoins in existence. Decades up to that point, the supply of Bitcoins will basically stagnate.
But does this mean that Bitcions will necessarily experience deflation? Well, yes it does. If people actually use it, then it will deflate.
Because if you are not increasing the money supply of a currency, then any increase in productivity will lead to deflation. Simply stated, there is an increasing amount of goods and services chasing a flat supply of money… this means that each coin is worth more than before.
And that is a bad thing.
Bitcoins have proven one thing so far this month… you do not want to buy or sell anything denominated in Bitcoins.
I'd like to point out... I *am* an engineer and an economist. :-)
But more to the point... The amount of hyperbole around Bitcoin is staggering. And the stridency with which people make unsound arguments is, well, almost Internetesque. (heh).
Did Goldberg really say, "No, we are safer with a currency that is managed by a government that can manipulate that currency." ???
Ask that question of any Argentine, or any other person who has lived through a government devaluation of its currency.
Kurt, that's a good point.
Government manipulation doesn't necessarily make currencies better. Look at Argentina, as you said.
Neither does central oversight -- look at the Euro.
I'm beginning to think that every currency has limitations. They're all imperfect in one way or another.