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The Forecast For Google Glass: A Gradual Rise To The Mainstream, And An $11 Billion Market By 2018

Stashed in: Mobile!, Google!, Awesome, Virtual Reality!, We'll See

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Google is aiming for an early- to mid-2014 debut of the gadget to the general public.

Despite the clunkiness and awkwardness of the early beta version of Glass, we think computerized glasses will become a mainstream product. They will gradually sort out the barriers to social acceptance.

We also think Google will radically cut the price of Glass, from $1,500 today to the $600 range in two years, and then lower.

We think mainstream consumers will pay this much, at least in wealthy economies, because of the already-high price of conventional eyewear.

Also, consumers will be drawn in by the novelty and excitement associated with the first truly revolutionary smart device to come along since the iPad in 2010. Google has bet big on creating a robust app ecosystem that will draw audiences in, and keep them hooked on the experience.

Right now Google Glass is just a smartphone you wear in front of your eyes. It's missing a killerapp that doesn't already exist on a smartphone.

I disagree that $600 is the price point of mainstream adoption. It needs to go a lot lower than that.

For now, we stick to smartphones and tablets. 

I agree that market for tablets is (still!) burgeoning and will stave off hunger for Glass for a while.

For the same price, most people would prefer a tablet to Glass. Bigger screen and more mainstream!

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