i did not know that intrade was at 25/75 for the healthcare ruling...i am surprised

why be surprised? people are very predictable in aggregate, but far less so individually. Even an aggregation of 9 is only somewhat predictable. NO ONE outside the court had any idea that Roberts would squish.

i thought it would be closer to 10/90...the crowd logic did say that it was getting overturned

Crowd logic sometimes gives in to groupthink.

I love this paragraph btw: "Think for a moment about what a Twitter feed is: it’s a personalized market of experts (and friends), in which you can build your own focus group and listen to its collective analysis about the past, present and future. An RSS feed, in which you choose blogs to read, works similarly. You make decisions about which experts are worthy of your attention, based both on your own judgments about them and on other experts’ judgments."