Stock market could crash 50% at any time now. ~Henry Blodget
Adam Rifkin stashed this in @hblodget
Blodget offers a sober reminder among the Dow hitting new highs and Twitter's euphoric IPO that the stock market doesn't go up all the time.
If you're overexposed in stocks, now might be a good time to cash out some and wait patiently for the next crash.
We know it will happen. We just don't know when.
Not sure if Twitter's IPO is euphoric and not sure if it should be connected with overall market heat index.
SPY P/E is 9.72, IBM's P/E is 12 and BRK.A P/E is 15, which is fairly modest.
Twitter is consumer internet company and consumer internet is obviously super hot industry now, but I do not think it drives up the whole market.
If we compare TWTR with other valuations in the industry it's not that overheated.
TWTP market cap is about 19B or $79 per active user. FB's market cap is 115B, which is roughly $100 per active user.
FB makes money and sold at P/E of ~100, which is high, but not outrageous for high growth companies. AMZN P/E is 1,240.26 and CRM has negative P/E.
I also believe that TWTR users are more valuable than FB. TWTR users are publishers, thus influencers, thus can make higher impact on marketing campaign performance.
I'm kind of a big fan of elliott wave theory. http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Stock-Market-Is-Trending-Perfectly-With/10/21/2013/id/52323
Usually before the crash, you see a final 5 series of extended magnitude.
Like most people who get paid to write and talk, Blodget contradicts himself and since irony is dead he does so by great economy--in the same article:
"In short, because I am a long-term investor, I am mentally prepared for a crash, and I am planning to ride out any crash, the same way I did with the 2008-2009 crash. And also because there isn't anything else compelling to invest in."
I won't contradict myself but I'll be as equally unhelpful as Bdoget:
The stock market will go higher, we just don't know when...