This Time is Different
Farnam Street stashed this in Interesting
When we look at situations we’re always looking for what’s unique. We should, however, give more thought to similarities.
Very well said:
Focusing on what’s different makes it easy to forget historical context. We lose touch with the base rate. We only see the evidence that supports our view (confirmation bias). We become optimistic and overconfident.
History provides context. And what history shows us is that no matter how unique things are today there are a lot of similarities with the past.