## What are the odds of a perfect NCAA tournament bracket?

#### J Thoendell stashed this in Sports

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/201...

If you're holding out hope that this is the year you're finally going to break through and get that perfect NCAA tournament bracket, you may need to wait a while. Like, a few billion years.

The odds of you filling out a perfect bracket this year are a staggering 1 in 9.2 quintillion. That's a nine with 18 zeroes or 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 if you're not into the whole rounding thing.

How big is that?

• That's one billion, 9.2 billion times.

• It's 500,000 times more than our $17 trillion national debt.

• You'd have a better chance of hitting four holes-in-one in a single round of golf.

The 1 in 9.2 quintillion number is straight mathematics. It figures out how many possible ways the 63 game results on your bracket could be filled out. (Two to the sixty-third power.)

But it doesn't account for standard basketball logic, like No. 1 seeds always advancing in the first round or tournament champions usually having a top-four seed or Duke's dual advantage of having a legend like Coach K *and* never getting called for a blocking foul. If you know something about the NCAA tournament, the odds of a perfect bracket are more like 1 in 128 billion. (That's according to DePaul math professor Jay Bergen.)

Using that number, if everyone in the United States filled out a bracket, we'd see a perfect one every 400 years.

**Stashed in:** Basketball, Math!, So you're saying there's a chance..., Baseball, Billions!, Moneyball, Warren Buffett, Awesome

11:33 AM Jan 21 2014