You've just been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List, how long will you survive?
J Thoendell stashed this in Crime
So the probability that you’re caught within 5.34 days is about 10 percent. Using another probability, there’s a 90 percent chance that you’re caught within 1,319 days (about 3.6 years).
What strikes me about this is that there is a 1 in 5 shot you’re caught within two weeks. After another two weeks it rises to a 1-in-3 shot you’re caught. The first two weeks are very much so the most crucial to the fugitive. The first two weeks is equivalent to the 16 weeks after in terms of risk.
So there you have it! The FBI’s Ten Most Wanted list as analyzed with survival analysis.