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Freakonomics For The Derby: I'm Steven Levitt. Let's Talk Horses.

Stashed in: Pwnies!, Gambling!, Big Data, So you're saying there's a chance..., Nate Silver, Horses, Freakonomics

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Learn how to make a decent pick for the Kentucky Derby, from the celeb-economist:

"there is a lot of dumb money betting on the Derby. My guess is dumb money goes towards the favorite and hopeless longshots. In a field of 19 or 20 horses, a horse has to be awfully good to go off at 2-1 or 5/2. My strategy for the Derby will be to throw out California Chrome, wheel 5 or 6 horses in trifectas and superfectas, and pray "

Steven Levitt and Nate Silver are becoming more and more alike, I think. Cool.

I was leaning towards California Chrome, but I really haven't looked at the rest of the field,  I lack experience in all the ecta's, never learned about them, and I only bet the horses on derby day.  Any input would be helpful :)

The only thing is Wicked Strong is in the 20th position, so all the way out, some extra ground to cover to get back to the pole?

Some horses prefer to start from the outside.  There are so many variables, which is why *anything* with no real predictable outcome is called a "horse race."   

Yep, every year I tell myself I'm not betting on the derby, then a year goes by, and I start thinking...

I like the long shots.  Or what's the fun?  :)

That was my old theory, bet long shots, so you at least win something significant, but it never pans out, the favorites usually win :(

Yes, and it's usually best to bet on #2 or #3 because better reward for the risk.

Calling it for Samraat.

Candy Boy, Samraat and Ride on Curlin.  Known as a Wack Box.

The Tribune says:

A win bet on California Chrome is logical, but for value, Dance With Fate is more tantalizing. For exactas and trifectas, Wicked Strong, Intense Holiday and Samraat should be included.

The Tribune called it right. Cool!

Man oh man, did they ever!  You picked a great source.

There's such a great back story on California Chrome, it makes the win so much more gratifying.

I got Wicked Strong & California Chrome to win.  Trifecta Keys on California Chrome + Wicked Strong & Candy Boy, and Wicked Strong + California Chrome & Candy Boy.  I have a Superfecta with all those 3 + Chitu.

I'll probably be swearing off pony betting for another year!

Not too shabby!!  Who can be unhappy with a win by an outlier bargain horse with the oldest trainer in Derby history?

Beautiful run!

Beautiful run and congrats! Yay for the sentimental favorite!

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