The Simple Heuristic That Saved 150 Lives
Farnam Street stashed this in Books
“In an uncertain world, statistical thinking and risk communication alone are not sufficient. Good rules of thumb are essential for good decisions.”
Look for a simple rule:
“Experts,” Gigerenzer writes, “often search for less information than novices do.”
We do the same thing, intuitively, to catch a baseball — the gaze heuristic.
Fix your gaze on an object, and adjust your speed so that the angle of gaze remains constant.
Professionals and amateurs alike rely on this rule.