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Swing States 2012 List

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I'm still trying to figure out the Battleground States 2012 List.

Everyone seems to have their own definition.

Constitution Daily writes:

Back in 2008, there were just six swing states in play at the end of the election, while the 2004 campaign featured 11 swing states.

The New York Times list for 2012 includes Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The USA Today/Gallup list has the same nine states as the New York Times, with the addition of New Mexico, North Carolina, and Michigan.

The Politico list excludes Michigan and calls New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin “soft” swing states.

The Real Clear Politics projected electoral map adds Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Montana to the list of potential swing states.

Essentially: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida are the big ones.

Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, and North Carolina are smaller but significant.

Other resources I found helpful:

Right now Obama is predicted to win but there's still 83 days until election day November 6, 2012.

In Nate Silver we trust

Nate Silver says right now Obama has a 70% chance of winning.

And his odds of Paul Ryan one day being President analysis is fascinating.

That's like rolling a natural 20 on a 20-sided die. :)

My gut told me there was a specific demographic play with the Ryan pick and this map just cemented it in my mind....

The R&R campaign put out this image during the announcement:


The white male, HS-only educated, blue collar, outdoor life loving, 'Reagan Democrat' is the demographic that Romney is strongest with right now. In some cases he has a 20 pt margin. Now, every state on that map, even FL, NM, and NV (tho not nearly as strongly as the others), has a very VERY strong hunting and/or fishing culture. I believe that the Ryan pic(k) was calculated to bolster enough turn out from this demo, in these states, to squeak out narrow victories.

That's a brilliant observation, Jason.

Mitt Romney isn't a hunter or a fisher, and his only exposure to NASCAR is that some of his friends own teams.

Paul Ryan brings cred with the hunters, the fishers, and the NASCAR attenders.

The all important noodling demographic has been overlooked before. =p

Are the noodlers with the hunters and the fishers?

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