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Do Conference Tournament Surprises Carry Over Into The NCAA Bracket?


Do Conference Tournament Surprises Carry Over Into The NCAA Bracket FiveThirtyEight

Do Conference Tournament Surprises Carry Over Into The NCAA Bracket FiveThirtyEight

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/do-co...

The admitted flaw in both approaches is the same one I ran into when evaluating which college basketball coaches outperform NCAA tournament expectations based on seeding. Such a method ostensibly captures underperformance in the final game of a tournament, but it doesn’t detect the missing future wins expected of a favored team going forward. Moreover, these results shouldn’t be taken to say that conference tournaments have no predictive value. A team’s post-conference-tourney SRS is slightly more correlated with its eventual NCAA tournament wins than its rating before the conference tourney began.

However, this analysis does serve as a warning against putting too much emphasis on the conference tournament relative to a team’s entire body of work, especially when it comes to picking unexpectedly hot conference tournament teams to go further than you’d otherwise predict for teams with their résumés.

Stashed in: Basketball, So you're saying there's a chance..., Nate Silver, March Madness!

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Single elimination tournaments are quite unpredictable because high variance in any given game. 

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