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Predicting the Belmont Stakes Winner with Machine Learning


Predicting the Belmont Stakes Winner with Machine Learning The Official Blog of BigML com

Predicting the Belmont Stakes Winner with Machine Learning The Official Blog of BigML com

Source: http://blog.bigml.com/2015/06/05/predict...

Let’s start by stating that the interpretation here is not written in stone,  but rather based on a general understanding and the recent trends in the sport of American thoroughbred racing.  Furthermore, none of this is meant to entice you, the reader, into gambling on this weekend’s race.  And none of if should be treated as professional handicapping advice by any measure.

With that said, it is somewhat expected and relieving that the betting odds are the foremost predictor for this weekend’s race.  If it did not show up at all, we’d be both surprised and worried about the racing fans relying on the experts’ and fellow racing fans’ “collective intelligence”.  However, the model tells us that the odds are not all that they are cracked up to be (at least for the Belmont Stakes).  After all, the odds explain far less than half the variation in results and thus cannot be exclusively trusted in this case.

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Fascinating. Horse odds are not as correlated with actual chance of winning as I thought.