Accountability Watch: Who Is Predicting What - James Fallows - The Atlantic
Jared Sperli stashed this in politics
Stashed in: politics
YES. Let's be calling people out for their predictions in two days. Feet to fire for playing ball rather than being intelligent.
Here's why political prediction is morally inferior to sports-line wagering or other kinds of normal betting: In pundit-world, the losers never have to pay off. You can assert with blowhard certitude that this or that candidate looks strong, this or that voting bloc is going to turn out, this or that strategy will be effective. If you're right, you play up that fact. If you're wrong, no one seems to notice or care. In Vegas, you have to pay up. In pundit land (or "we need to invade Iraq, now!" land), you just move on. That's why, to give yet another argument in shorthand, I think it's good rather than bad if people who are making a big deal of their predictive talent are willing to back their views with actual bets. I will flesh out that argument some other day.
The Avast maps are fascinating... seriously I'm amazed an anti-vir company thought to take a poll.. just too cool