So if you want to know when Google Keep, opened for business on 21 March 2013, will probably shut - again, assuming Google decides it's just not working - then, the mean suggests the answer is: 18 March 2017. That's about long enough for you to cram lots of information that you might rely on into it; and also long enough for Google to discover that, well, people aren't using it to the extent that it hoped. Much the same as happened with Knol (lifespan: 1,377 days, from 23 July 2008 to 30 April 2012), or Wave (1,095 days, from May 2009 - 30 April 2012) or of course Reader (2,824 days, from 7 October 2005 to 1 July 2013).

If you want to play around further with the numbers, then if we assume that closures occur randomly as a normal distribution around the mean, and that Google is going to shut Google Keep, then there's a 68% chance that the closure will occur between April 2015 and February 2019. Even the later date wouldn't be much longer than Evernote - which is still growing - has already lasted. Is Google really that committed to Keep?

The real question is: How many projects started under Larry Page have been shut down?

The answer is: None.

Also, when they shut down projects they usually let you migrate the data.

So even though Google Reader is ending, you can migrate your data elsewhere if you want.

Number of days since Larry Page took over as CEO of Google: 794.

Google needs to market the fuck out of Keep.  Just sayin', R.

have it focus on gmail and gdocs.  please not g+

Have either of you played with it? Is it good?

Just started.  So far, soooo good.  :-) 

Keep us posted, please. :)

i have android 2.1, so no

Why no upgrade? Android has gotten a LOT better recently.