I love the premise of this article. Rather than ignoring the role of serendipity and randomness in our professional lives, this article begins explore it. 

Trial and error is important:

You need to create a number of different bets, and then you need to iterate a number of bets until it doesn't work or it takes off.

There's one underlying reason for this: If we could predict what would work, we would never ever do anything that doesn't work. If success is random, it follows that you need to roll the dice frequently.