Behavioral biases lead to poor decisions.
Adam Rifkin stashed this in Influence!
Stashed in: FAIL, Best PandaWhale Posts, Luck!, #success, Decisions, @ifindkarma, Blink, Your argument is invalid., Survivor!, Psychology!, Your doing it wrong., FALSE., Life Hacks, Psychology, Logical Fallacies, Most Important Stash Ever, FAIL, Cognitive Bias
This article elucidates 61 ways we deceive ourselves.
Of them all, survivorship bias is the one that resonates most with me:
An error that comes from focusing only on surviving examples, causing us to misevaluate a situation.
For instance, we might think that being an entrepreneur is easy because we haven't heard of all of the entrepreneurs that have failed.
It can also cause us to assume that survivors are inordinately better than failures, without regard for the importance of luck.
It's amazing to me that humans have so many biases that lead us to wrong decisions.
See also Tim Richard's Psi-Fi blog: http://www.psyfitec.com/p/list-of-behavioral-biases.html
Paul Shumaker's book, "Decision Traps," written in 1989 is worth reading. He presented to a group of analysts back then and it had an amazing effect on behavior. survivor bias, presence in the media (e.g., death by car vs death by tuberculosis), seeking disconfirming information. Lots of really good stuff from back in the dark ages. I still use several of his little tests today.
Choice-supportive bias, be gone!
I'm not sure you can just dispel a bias by commanding it to leave.
Better to accept that everyone makes mistakes and to move on than to create justifications for making mistakes.
I concur. Everyone makes mistakes.
It also helps when people are willing to share with you when you're being biased without realizing it.
And everybody hurts. Sometimes.