Two types of ignorance
Farnam Street stashed this in Interesting
"While human irrationality factors into all decisions, it hits us most when we are unknowingly ignorant. Rational decision making becomes harder as we move along the continuum: outcomes are known —> risk —> uncertainty/ignorance.
If we can not consider all possible outcomes, preventing failure becomes nearly impossible. Further complicating matters, situations of ignorance often take years to play out. Joy and Zeckhauser write:
One could argue … that a rational decision maker should always consider the possibility of ignorance, thus ruling out primary ignorance. But that is a level of rationality that very few achieve.
If we could do this we’d always be in the space of recognized ignorance, better, at least, than primary ignorance."
Don't I know it!
Read more here: http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2013/11/two-types-of-ignorance/
It's the unknown unknowns that get ya.
The entire construct of the discussion itself is ignorance.
"If we can not consider all possible outcomes, preventing failure becomes nearly impossible."
There is no failure, the idea of failure is primordial ignorance.
You are born, you live, you die. Live your life until it is no more.
The ignorance is that there is the need, the desire attachment to some
"Future desired state"
We as a species are harming ourselves because people and thus groups of people are all trying to achieve desired states that are mutually exclusive.
Failure is not "nearly impossible" it is certain. Even if you achieve the desired state it cannot be maintained because one, everything changes and two, there are forces that desire you not to be in that state.
Indeed, this is a warring dimension where everything is permitted and nothing will last.
One helpful illusion is to embrace that everyone is making the most of their time here as best they can given their current circumstances. And perhaps, as such, we cycle through many illusions of helping, hindering and ignoring our greater potentials in active collaboration.