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The Simple Reason Nate Silver's Final Four Prediction Failed 2014


Stashed in: Basketball, So you're saying there's a chance..., Nate Silver

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According to the FiveThirtyEight model, Arizona had the best chance of reaching the Final Four with a 42.4% chance of winning the West regional. However, that also meant that there was a 57.6% chance they would lose one of their first four games.

Florida had a 41.1% of reaching the Final Four, followed by Louisville (38.1%). Michigan State (24.0%) was the longest shot and actually had a 76.0% chance of not making it to the Final Four.

While three of the teams were given a better than 1-in-3 chance of reaching the Final Four, basic probability shows just how little chance there was for all four teams to make it all the way.

Based on FiveThirtyEight's model, this Final Four combination had a 1.6% chance of happening.

Calling it for Yukon.

Wait, I don't get it. Why did he fail?

Because this isn't about poll results -- it's about a thousand intangibles, right?

True, and there can be no "favorites".

Clearly. You're right, UConn took it all. They weren't even a Top 25 team.

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