How Putin Is Reinventing Warfare
Jared Sperli stashed this in war
"Part of the rationale for fast-tracking Russia's inclusion into the global economy was that interconnection would be a check on aggression. But the Kremlin has figured out that this can be flipped: Interconnection also means that Russia can get away with aggression."
Here we are 100 years after the start of World War I and the same powder keg scenario is happening again. It's as if a hundred years of history and technology have changed nothing at all.
Why is Putin the aggressor and not defender?
Psych studies show that aggressors under estimate the force of aggression and overestimate the force of response. Tit for tat leads to escalation.
The USA started it with war in proxy states and then NATO/EU expansion.
A 1 trillion dollar defense budget is defacto aggression.
My 3 year old boy ask "daddy why don't we hit people"
1) we don't want to hurt anybody
2)it does not get us what we want
3)they might hit you back
The USA does not believe they will get hit back, they think it gets them what they want and they don't give a shit about the dead.
Russia will hit back. But they are not agressor.
If my older daughter taunts her brother and takes his stuff and he hits her, she is the aggressor.
My daughter never thinks she brought it on herself.
And yes I am comparing the world leaders to children.
Comparing the world's leaders to children seems apt.
Thanks for those links, Jared.
So... now what do we do?
We watch the globalization of people and markets implode as they are doing.
Think about what Cheney said about torture. He did not care about innocents as long as they occomplished their objectives.
Russian and emerging markets are crashing in an historic fashion and barely a word, do they know its Christmas time?
As I stated, QE was warfare. The 2008 financial debacle set back the war effort. So they inflated assets prices to shield the us economy from the war. I doubt it will work but neither did torture. The Fed/treasury is an instrument of war.
I know I am conflating two issues, but all the issues are conflated in one big psychopathic game.
Yeah, I was wondering what is happening in Russia. Is that because oil prices are way down?
Apple is now worth more than the ENTIRE capitalization of Russian corps traded on exchange.
Oil has been at 40 in the past and didn't crater it, this is a raid. Western exchanges stopped Ruble trading. I cannot remember a fx halt like that.
Dangerous game with a country that is willing to use tactical nukes
Why did the a Western exchanges stop Ruble trading?
How many more _centuries_ of this do we have to put up with before people will understand that the problem with Russian aggression is specifically _Russian_Aggression_ ? There is nothing new to this game Putin is playing, and he will fail at it just like every other Russian autocrat has failed at it, and in the same way: isolation and economic collapse.
So do we just let things play out or do we do something to accelerate it?
I think the Saudis are doing that for us... Russia is supporting their Shia enemies, Iran and Syria. Also Russia is even more dependent upon oil economically than the Saudis are (wish i could find that article again) which is saying alot. Additionally, the Saudis want to run our new fracking wells out of business... So keeping the price of oil low is a win-win for them. Also I suspect that Obama's enviro side relishes the idea of manipulating the market to undo the Bush-era energy policy.
Interestingly, keeping oil prices low is a win for many consumers too.
We wouldn't mind if they continued to deflate oil prices for the foreseeable future.