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This Mathematical Model from 2006 Shows How Ebola Could Wipe Us Out

This Mathematical Model from 2006 Shows How Ebola Could Wipe Us Out Motherboard


Yaneer Bar-Yam, the complex systems analyst whose model accurately predicted the global unrest that led to the Arab Spring, is also worried about the patterns he sees in the disease's advance. Models he designed for the New England Complex Systems Institute back in 2006 show that Ebola could rapidly spread, and, in a worse case scenario, even cause an extinction event, if enough infected people make it through an international airport.

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Panic is never a wise thing to incite, because it can result in exactly the kinds of unpredictable behavior that Bar-Yam is warning us about. However, a healthy amount of fear is a different matter.

‚ÄúThe question becomes, at what point do we hit the panic button? What does it look like to hit the panic button?‚ÄĚ he said.

Why Ebola specifically? Because it spreads through the air?

Looks like most of Alaska and central Australia do ok as sparsely populated English speaking real estate goes, plus a majority of heavily populated Indonesia hangs in there too.  

The real question is how to get a direct flight without transiting through an infected area... probably best to travel by sea... and screen your crew carefully:

"Ebola is spread through bodily fluids, much like HIV. But, unlike HIV, Ebola causes your skin to break out in lesions. That makes it considerably easier to spread bodily fluids, but it also makes it really, really easy to tell if someone actually has the disease. "

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