Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
Jason Belich stashed this in politics
Stashed in: politics
I'd hate for Shrum to be right.... But this is a highly plausible scenario.. There has been an uptick for Obama of about 1pt since Saturday. It's part of the standard pattern for pre-election swings, but everything is so close, it might be enough.
I happen to think that there's enough uncertainty around PA that it's totally up in the air, and I also think all of the pundits (incl. Silver) forget that the GOP civil war in NH seriously damaged the last several cycles and since it's been over since the 2010 Leg primaries, that a unified GOP there will pull out more votes than in recent cycles.
It's going to be wild..prolly going to run down the batteries on my phone at least twice.. lol
Jason, great analysis.
Pennsylvania's a real wildcard -- it would shock many people if Romney takes it.