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Don't Count Alabama out of the 2012 BCS Championship yet...


Stashed in: Nate Silver, Alabama

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Grantland nails the argument:

From a statistical standpoint, there is only a 1-in-7 shot that all three of the remaining unbeatens in college football — Notre Dame, Oregon, and Kansas State — finish the regular season without a loss.

People freaking out that a 12-0 Notre Dame might not play for a national championship are having the wrong nervous breakdown. Those people should have the heebies and/or jeebies about either of the SEC teams in the current BCS top five (Alabama and Georgia) ending up in Miami. Historically speaking, it's not at all unlikely that multiple teams near the top of the polls still lose. Should that happen, and should the SEC step its way into another title game, it might also be totally undeserved.

Source of the 1-in-7 number: http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/page/BMOC-111312/bmoc-surveys-palouse-perfection-deflategate-college-football

I mentioned that here: http://pandawhale.com/convo/8912/texas-aampm-upsets-alabama-creating-nightmare-bcs-scenario?comment=31083

Where's Nate Silver when we need him? 

Nate Silver should be a brand for accurate predictions with data.

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