Why Ray Kurzweil's Predictions Are Right 86% of the Time...
Arthur Lozinski stashed this in PandaWhale
Stashed in: Interest Graph!, PandaWhale, The Web, Teh Internets, Big Data!, Brain, Awesome, The Future, History of Tech!, life, Singularity!, @taylorswift13, Mind Blown!, Extraordinary People, Ray Kurzweil!
Directly relevant to PandaWhale:
"That's why "Big Data" is such a buzzword these days - there's a growing recognition that we're losing track of all the information we're putting up on the Internet, from Facebook status updates, to YouTube videos, to funny meme posts on Tumblr. In just a decade, we will have created more content than existed for thousands of years in humanity's prior experience."
I saw Ray speak at the recent Techonomy conference in Arizona, which was a cracking experience. Especially as he couples his smarts with a badass-from-Brooklyn look :)
Ray Kurzweil does have a badass look, now that you mention it.
I love the concept of the Law of Accelerating Returns:
As Ray points out in How to Create a Mind, the reason why typical pundits and prognosticators typically get it wrong year after year is that the human mind has evolved to think linearly, not exponentially.
We conceive of 40 steps as a linear progression: one step after another, from 1 to 40. When Ray thinks of 40 steps, though, he views it exponentially, as 2^40, and that's 1 trillion.
In fact, at a recent talk Kurzweil gave at TEDx Silicon Alley in Manhattan, he mentioned what can be called the "1% fallacy." When most people hear that only 1% of the problem has been solved, they usually give up and assume it will be years until it's fully solved. Ray thinks exponentially, though. From his perspective, if you've solved 1% of the problem, it means that you're not 1/100 of the way there (i.e. 99 tiny linear steps to go), it means you're only a few more exponential steps away.
That's why Ray's latest project - reverse-engineering the human brain - is so exciting. Once we've reverse-engineered just 1% of the human brain, it means that we're just a few steps away from creating a synthetic cortex - the world's' best algorithmic Pattern Recognition Machine.
Whoa. Only a few steps away. Mind blown again!!!
Accelerate the accumulation and distribution of information, please!!!
Faster, stronger, better more!!!
Innovation happens exponentially.
Which is why we're so attracted to innovation.