Both sugar sweetened soda and artificially sweetened soda are associated with increased type 2 diabetes risk.
Adam Rifkin stashed this in Science!
It does appear there's a connection between artificial sweeteners and T2D:
Most previous papers I've seen on this topic have failed to account for the reverse-causation possibility: that is, that people who are overweight/obese/prediabetic consume more diet drinks to try and avoid T2D, then end up getting it anyway and looking like the artificial sweeteners are (at least in part) to blame. That possibility is huge, and in my mind has been enough to cast previous papers' findings into doubt. This paper, however, DID address it, and found it unlikely that reverse-causation is in play - thus, to me at least, the rest of their findings carry a lot more weight, especially since they ALSO considered carbohydrate intake, total energy intake, BMI, and adiposity, which are also very high on my list of confounders which have made be doubt previous studies.
Yes, they adjusted for diet, both carbohydrate and otherwise. Yes, they adjusted for exercise. Yes, they adjusted for BMI. Yes, they adjusted for smoking. Yes, they adjusted for education. And that's not an exhaustive list. They even did a sensitivity analysis to test reverse causation and didn't find a link.
Eat food. not too much. mostly plants. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/magazine/28nutritionism.t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
That was great advice then, and it's even more relevant now.