What Playboy Playmates can teach you about making accurate predictions
Eric Barker stashed this in Biases
Stashed in: Luck!, #success, Influence!, @bakadesuyo, Your argument is invalid., G4!, Your doing it wrong., So you're saying there's a chance...., Investing, Cognitive Bias
"Half the Playmates beat the S&P 500 while less than a third of professional money managers were able to."
what, it's not attributable to pillow talk? It all starts with a horse...
NSFW: Lucky Number Slevin:
Wasn't there a monkey that used to pick stocks for the Wall Street Journal who outperformed?
I do agree that stock picking is mostly luck.
Unlike more skill-based activities, a great deal of picking stocks is about luck.
And therein lies a mistake we’re all prone to.
As Michael Mauboussin explains in his fascinating new book, The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing we are often terrible about distinguishing when challenges are about skill and when they’re about luck, leading us to make less accurate predictions.
Read more: http://www.bakadesuyo.com/2013/06/accurate-predictions/
6:25 AM Jun 17 2013