Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-...

CARMELO, an algorithm that forecasts the future performance of NBA basketball players.

The basic premise of CARMELO is simple. For each current NBA player, CARMELO identifies similar players throughout modern NBA history1 and uses their careers to forecast the current player’s future.

According to CARMELO, for example, Washington Wizards point guard John Wall, through this point in his career, is similar to former NBA players Isiah Thomas, Jason Kidd, Steve Francis and Kenny Anderson. Kidd continued to improve as a player through his mid-to-late 20s, while Thomas had a long peak and led the Detroit Pistons to two championships. So both are favorable comps for Wall. Francis and Anderson are less favorable. So while Wall has the potential to develop into a superstar, he’s not a sure thing.