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With 7 Games To Go, Warriors Have an 85 Percent Chance of Getting at least 73 Wins


Stashed in: Basketball, So you're saying there's a chance..., Nate Silver

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2015-2016 Warriors are on an astonishing run.

The Warriors won easily in the extra period, mainly behind Draymond Green’s burly defending. Of course they did. Golden State has outscored opponents by +41 per 48 minutes in seven OT periods this season. At 68-7, the team is tied for the fourth-most wins ever in an NBA season — with seven games to play.

Using our CARM-Elo predictions, we now give the Warriors an 85.4 percent chance of breaking the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record of 72 wins and a 97 percent chance of at least tying it. Our colleagues at ESPN Stats & Info, using a model based on their Basketball Power Index, put the chances of 73 or more wins at 80 percent (one of the key differences is that the Spurs have overtaken the Warriors in BPI and play Golden State twice more this season).

The Jazz game might have been the toughest left on the schedule for the Warriors. Golden State was on the second night of a back-to-back, on the road, and playing a defense that is in the top 10 in efficiency for the season but is much more formidable when Rudy Gobert is in the lineup (he’s played in just 55 games this season). The relative difficulty of the Utah game — Golden State was “only” a 61 percent favoriteaccording to CARM-Elo — is one reason the Warriors’ odds of winning 73 or more leapt from 66 percent two games ago to more than 85 percent now. Of the team’s remaining seven games, five are at home, and only one comes as the second leg of a back-to-back.

After losing to Boston, the Warriors' chance to break the record falls to 54 percent. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-losing-to-the-celtics-changes-the-warriors-odds-of-73-wins/

After losing to the Timberwolves, the 69-9 Warriors have just a 13% chance of getting to 73-9. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-warriors-are-now-long-shots-to-win-73-games/

Defeating the Spurs at home the Warriors are now 70-9 and have a 22% chance of getting to 73.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-spurs-are-still-big-favorites-to-stop-the-warriors-from-getting-73/

They did it!

The Warriors' Record-Setting Season | FiveThirtyEight

The Warriors' Record-Setting Season | FiveThirtyEight

All records the Warriors made this season:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/warriors-record-73-wins/

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